2024: Chaos and Comfort
No matter what happens, it's scary for someone.
To me, the scariest element of the elections next year is that nothing can be known. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing stays the same anymore, and situations can change in the space of one short news cycle.
Let's use the most recent Congressional election as an example. Pundits predicted a "Red Wave". After all, it's natural for Congress to flip to the other party when there is a new president in office. There was a substantial "Blue Wave" when Trump was elected. The 2020 election created a base of angry Trump voters, many of whom still believed their man was wrongly deprived of his office. If they couldn't have their president, they should at least have their Congress. Trump had a mobilized base.
As it turns out, Democrats were equally mobilized. They learned a hard lesson when they decided to sit out the 2016 election. Votes matter and sometimes the lesser of two evils is much less evil than you realize. If Trump accomplished one good thing in office, it is he started making Democrats vote again. Democrats weren't going to stay home and let Donald Trump win again in 2020 and they weren't going to let that Red Wave happen in 2022. Republicans overtook the House, but not by much. Democrats kept the Senate. The Red Wave was barely a ripple.
What is in store for 2024? Will Republicans continue to mobilize? Will local and state governments continue to find ways to restrict voting rights and make voting more difficult to prevent Democrats from voting in red or purple states? Will the candidates be people the country wants to vote for?
Will President Biden run again? Right now he says he will, but changes can happen in a year. Despite the Republicans' accusations of his mental unfitness, he is currently mentally and physically healthy, but anything could happen between now and 2024 to change that. He is 80 years old and running around the world trying to maintain stability domestically and internationally. In the last televised interview I saw with him he looked and sounded tired and weary. Can he keep this up? His health could go downhill. He could drop dead from a sudden heart attack.
If he runs for re-election, will he still be electable? Right now I think he is. He may not be polling high, but I don't believe the polls always tell the whole story. Look on social media and see how Democrats are talking about Biden. He is praised for his policy. Many voters who were lukewarm about him say he exceeded their expectations. I believe many Americans will want his programs in infrastructure continued. If there are no major incidents, he could be re-elected.
But what about those incidents? What could go wrong between 2023 and 2024? The world is an unstable place in the best of times. We could have a disaster that crashes the economy. There could be major diplomatic meltdowns. Biden could suffer from the same issues Carter had with Iran. (Will Biden's opposition have a corrupt team of people to make sure issues aren't resolved while he is in office as Reagan's people did with Iran?) There could be some kind of October surprise. In 2016 Clinton found herself hamstrung by an announcement of new emails. That announcement may have kept undecided voters from going to the polls in November.
How does Donald Trump fit into this? Can he win the nomination again? Can he beat Joe Biden the second time around?
A few years ago I read a piece by a pundit who compared Trump to Sarah Palin. Both Trump and Palin were media darlings. They were so outrageous and controversial, the public never stopped paying attention. There was always something for the media to cover. Their names sold newspapers and airtime. But no single public figure can dominate the news cycle indefinitely. The constant coverage included negative as well as positive and it meant reasonable voters were turned off enough to stay away from the candidates and the polls. Furthermore, everyone tired of hearing about them. The public moved on.
It's taking longer for the public to move on from Donald Trump than it did for Palin. He is much more media savvy and knows what it take to manipulate the press into covering him. He also began his political career with much more celebrity and infamy than Sarah Palin did. He won't go away as easily, but chances are good he will go away. His party is beginning to realize he is dragging them all down and they need to get rid of him, but they don't know how to do that without turning off his rabidly loyal base. This could split the Republican party and what happens then?
What are our other choices right now? Nikki Haley announced her candidacy, but she hasn't done much to distinguish herself other than to say she's younger than her opponents. Will she find a way to make herself appealing enough to make the voting public pay attention? Maybe she will be something of a dark horse.
Many Americans fear Ron DeSantis. He is a another media darling who garners attention by passing a constant stream of extreme and dangerous legislation. He is trying to silence any voices that don't agree with his world view. He publicly espouses the same kind of religious wingnuttery Trump did, but unlike Trump, he believes in what he says. He is popular regardless and is also smarter and better educated than Trump. He potentially has what it takes to legislate according to his religious views. He hasn't announced a run for president yet, but many voters fear he is electable. There are also voters who fervently hope he is electable.
Where will any of these candidates be a year from now? It doesn't take much for a candidate to call from grace. Can we count on any of these candidates to be around in 2024? History tells us they might not be.
Remember when Chris Christie was the darling of the Republican party? He bumbled that one nicely with the George Washington Bridge scandal. He also didn't endear himself to the public when he relaxed with his family on a beach that was closed to the public.
Gary Hart was a promising candidate on the Democratic side until he dared the press to go after him and find something on him. They took the dare and took him down.
Eliot Spitzer was another rising star in the Democratic party. This was a man who took down corruption on Wall Street. He should have had a stellar political career. It's too bad his misdeeds were legendary.
Then there is the father of all fallen candidates, Rudy Giuliani. There was a time when he could do no wrong. He was America's Mayor. Now he's a running joke, a buffoon, a has-been. Most Americans want him as far away from politics as possible.
Then again Bill Clinton, Mark Sanford, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush all overcame some nasty scandals in their administrations and were still elected to office, or remained in office.
We have over a year until the next election. What can happen between now and then? Can Trump finally be indicted for one, or all, of his crimes? Can Ron DeSantis have a misstep and fall from grace? Can Ron DeSantis come to the rescue when a Democrat makes a major mistake? Can Chris Christie make a comeback? Will Ted Cruz accomplish anything that would make him a worthy candidate and finally fulfill his ambitions? Will there be a brand new candidate coming out of the shadows who will impress the voters?
Think of the shake up in Congress. For example, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was able to unseat a long-time congressman in her district with views that align more with European government ideas than US ones. Unfortunately, the shake-up goes in both directions. For every AOC there are right-wing, authoritarian, theocratic radicals like Marjorie Taylor Green, Kevin McCarthy, and Jim Jordan. For every Jamie Raskin there is a Matt Gaetz, and a Lauren Boebert. For every Bernie Sanders there is a Ron Johnson and a Josh Hawley.
Where will the government go next? Will one side win? If one side doesn't win, will be have more showdowns and stalemates between the two sides, assuring the rest of us nothing important will be accomplished?
Whatever we hope for might not come true. I would love to see the Republican party continue to be split by the squabbling between those who want to continue to support Trump and those who want to move past his election lies and start legislating again. It might happen and it might not. I want to see Biden continue with his infrastructure programs and job creation. Can he keep up the momentum without a major scandal happening?
Will any of this matter because we have a packed Supreme Court who will rule according to its religious views and side with corporations over citizen, and packed lower courts who will allow all sorts of gerrymandering and voter suppression laws to go into or remain in effect?
I could keep going on about this (and I have gone on long enough), and never come to any real conclusions. The election cycles in this country are far too long and it is a quirk of our culture that we have such extended election cycles. I shouldn't be obsessed with these topics now, but I am.
If the last six years taught this country anything, it's that nothing is certain anymore. No candidate is a sure thing. Anything can happen.
The chaos is scary, but it's also comforting. When I see Ron DeSantis become more dictatorial and theocratic, I remind myself that he's not guaranteed to keep up his momentum for the next year and a half. Who knows how much Trump will continue to be brought down by his legal troubles and state of health? Maybe internal squabbles between MAGA and everyone else are going to fracture the vote. Something equally devastating could happen to my side, but it's no more or less likely.
It's all chaos. I find that strangely comforting.
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